Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +24 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -4.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -3.4 (+20.6) | 132.3 (-8.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -3.3 (+20.7) | 130.6 (-6.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.9 (+20.1) | 132.4 (-8.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -4.1 (+19.9) | 131.7 (-7.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 29, 2021 | ASU 72 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | 2.5 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#144) | 0.75 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 0.38 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#172) | 0.557 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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