Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -120 IDST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -0.9 (-2.9) | 136.1 (+23.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -1.5 (-3.5) | 139.8 (+20.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -1.4 (-3.4) | 140.2 (+19.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.6 (-2.6) | 140.6 (+19.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#308) | -5.6 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | -1.20 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#235) | -1.24 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.423 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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