Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -163 USI +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -9.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.8 (-1.8) | 137.6 (+15.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -8.4 (-3.4) | 137.7 (+15.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -8.2 (-3.2) | 137.7 (+15.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -8.9 (-3.9) | 138.6 (+14.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#255) | -10.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#256) | -2.48 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#255) | -3.06 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.407 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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