Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | USI -195 TNST +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | USI -12.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -9.3 (-7.3) | 152.7 (-0.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -7.1 (-5.1) | 155.4 (-3.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -8.8 (-6.8) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -9.1 (-7.1) | 152.9 (-0.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TNST 79 – 74 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | -10.6 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#262) | -2.80 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#244) | -3.50 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#267) | 0.347 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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