Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USI +230 TNST -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -5.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -5.3 (+3.3) | 145.2 (-1.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.1 (+4.1) | 143.4 (+0.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -5.8 (+3.8) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -6.0 (+4.0) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TNST 79 – 74 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#338) | -4.5 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#356) | -0.28 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#352) | -0.78 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.352 (#363) | 0.513 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.