Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -360 USI +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -8.4 (-3.4) | 148.4 (-5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -8.1 (-3.1) | 147.0 (-4.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -7.7 (-2.7) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -7.5 (-2.5) | 149.0 (-6.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TNST 79 – 74 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#253) | -11.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#277) | -2.00 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#282) | -2.64 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#240) | 0.399 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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