Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -188 USI +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -3.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.9 (+10.1) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.1 (+10.9) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.9 (+10.1) | 139.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.6 (+10.4) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TNST 79 – 74 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#289) | -10.7 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#263) | -2.59 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#275) | -3.00 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#224) | 0.413 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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