Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -410 USI +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -11.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -9.2 (-3.2) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -9.0 (-3.0) | 145.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -9.5 (-3.5) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -9.4 (-3.4) | 144.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TNST 79 – 74 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-2 | 3-10 |
| Away | 10-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#227) | -11.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#172) | -2.72 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#208) | -3.07 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#156) | 0.354 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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