Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +155 CONN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.7 (-10.3) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.9 (-10.1) | 141.6 (-0.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.7 (-10.3) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.6 (-10.4) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 18.8 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#61) | 3.53 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#53) | 4.31 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#55) | 0.636 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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