Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -213 FAIR +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -3.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -2.7 (+6.3) | 146.5 (+26.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -4.9 (+4.1) | 146.9 (+26.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.8 (+6.2) | 144.9 (+28.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -2.9 (+6.1) | 145.6 (+27.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 70 IONA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | IONA 87 – 64 FAIR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FAIR 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | FAIR 68 – 63 IONA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IONA 78 – 67 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#174) | -0.5 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#232) | -0.11 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#192) | -0.28 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#198) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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