Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -200 IONA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.3 (+2.7) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -3.7 (+1.3) | 141.5 (-10.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -3.9 (+1.1) | 142.1 (-11.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.9 (+2.1) | 141.9 (-10.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 70 IONA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | IONA 87 – 64 FAIR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FAIR 68 – 64 IONA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | IONA 91 – 82 FAIR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IONA 78 – 67 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#166) | -2.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#178) | -0.68 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#180) | -0.79 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#135) | 0.495 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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