Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR +200 IONA -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -3.2 (-7.8) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -0.7 (-10.3) | 146.2 (-1.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -1.4 (-9.6) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -2.0 (-9.0) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 70 IONA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | IONA 87 – 64 FAIR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FAIR 68 – 64 IONA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | FAIR 68 – 63 IONA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | IONA 91 – 82 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#302) | -1.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#329) | -1.56 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#327) | -1.96 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#325) | 0.390 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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