Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +100 IONA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.4 (+3.6) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.5 (+3.5) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.0 (+4.0) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.8 (+3.2) | 139.4 (-7.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 70 IONA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | IONA 87 – 64 FAIR |
| Mar 14, 2024 | FAIR 68 – 63 IONA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | IONA 91 – 82 FAIR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IONA 78 – 67 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -8.0 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#292) | -1.05 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#312) | -1.60 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#290) | 0.447 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 16.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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