Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -120 SFA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -0.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.9 (+10.1) | 140.4 (-1.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.9 (+9.1) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.3 (+9.7) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.0 (+9.0) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | TAR 68 – 66 SFA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2022 | TAR 77 – 71 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#181) | 2.4 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#127) | 0.26 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#132) | 0.66 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#111) | 0.504 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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