Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -500 TAR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -12.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.4 (-8.4) | 136.5 (-2.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.2 (-9.2) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.6 (-9.6) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.3 (-8.3) | 137.4 (-3.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | TAR 75 – 64 SFA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2022 | TAR 77 – 71 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#65) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#88) | 1.52 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#70) | 1.63 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#81) | 0.591 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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