Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -275 TAR +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.8 (-1.8) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -5.3 (-0.3) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -5.2 (-0.2) | 141.3 (-16.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -5.4 (-0.4) | 141.7 (-16.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | TAR 75 – 64 SFA |
| Nov 30, 2023 | TAR 68 – 66 SFA |
| Jan 9, 2022 | TAR 77 – 71 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | -0.6 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#124) | 0.29 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | 0.30 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.524 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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