Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -2.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.3 (+5.7) | 127.2 (+20.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.3 (+4.7) | 130.5 (+17.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.7 (+4.3) | 132.0 (+16.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.0 (+4.0) | 131.9 (+16.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | TAR 75 – 64 SFA |
| Nov 30, 2023 | TAR 68 – 66 SFA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SFA 65 – 60 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#158) | 2.3 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#223) | 0.77 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#178) | 0.65 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#202) | 0.557 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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