Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -120 USM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -1.0 (+4.0) | 133.6 (-18.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.6 (+4.4) | 133.0 (-18.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.8 (+4.2) | 135.0 (-20.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.0 (+5.0) | 135.4 (-20.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | -3.9 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#265) | -0.03 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#249) | -0.32 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#221) | 0.507 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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