Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -275 CIT +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -4.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.0 (-3.0) | 134.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.2 (-2.2) | 134.4 (-12.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -3.7 (-1.7) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -3.6 (-1.6) | 136.1 (-14.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#217) | -4.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -1.09 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | -1.21 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#168) | 0.441 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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