Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +163 JOES -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -5.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.4 (-1.6) | 146.3 (+23.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.7 (-2.3) | 145.7 (+24.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.6 (-1.4) | 146.5 (+23.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.5 (-2.5) | 146.4 (+23.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#207) | 6.5 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#179) | 0.91 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#177) | 1.08 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.542 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.