Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic Sun Conference · Curry Arena · February 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread QUC -5.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money QUC -225 / BELL +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total QUC win
Actual QUC +10 160 Won
Massey QUC -4.9 (+5.1)
Massey Totals 151.6 (+8.4)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 85%
Efficiency Plus ML QUC -4.3 (+5.7) 148.9 (+11.1) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML QUC -3.8 (+6.2) 148.2 (+11.8) 67%
Baseline ML QUC -4.1 (+5.9) 150.0 (+10.0) 70%
Baseline Plus ML QUC -4.4 (+5.6) 150.6 (+9.4) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 BELL 7875 QUC
Jan 3, 2026 QUC 9876 BELL
Feb 13, 2025 QUC 9287 BELL
Feb 11, 2023 BELL 8884 QUC
Jan 5, 2023 QUC 7574 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings QUC BELL
Overall 14-19 8-23
Conference 7-9 4-12
Home 11-3 6-7
Away 2-16 2-16
Neutral 1-0 0-0
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 77.3 67.5
Avg Pts Against 82.6 76.8
Massey -7.4 (#292) -8.7 (#306)
Bradley-Terry -0.77 (#248) -1.75 (#324)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.14 (#267) -2.18 (#321)
RPI 0.463 (#246) 0.427 (#304)
Shooting & Four Factors QUC BELL
FG% 42.1% 41.8%
3PT% 31.8% 33.9%
REB / G 36.3 31.0
OREB / G 11.0 8.1
AST / TO 1.01 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.8% 48.2%
TOV% 16.9% 15.9%
ORB% 27.6% 23.1%
FT Rate 22.8% 17.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 54.1%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 15.0%
DRB% 69.8% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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