Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Atlantic Sun Conference · Freedom Hall (KY) · January 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread QUC -1.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money BELL +100 / QUC +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total BELL win
Actual QUC +1 149 Lost
Massey QUC -2.0 (+1.0) — —
Massey Totals — 138.9 (+10.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 29% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 31% ✓
Baseline Plus ML QUC -2.0 (+1.0) 137.7 (+11.3) 40% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ QUC -3.0 (+2.0) 136.5 (+12.5) 38% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML QUC -1.7 (+0.7) 139.2 (+9.8) 42% ✓
Baseline ML QUC -2.0 (+1.0) 140.9 (+8.1) 40% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 BELL 78 – 75 QUC
Jan 3, 2026 QUC 98 – 76 BELL
Feb 13, 2025 QUC 92 – 87 BELL
Feb 3, 2024 QUC 85 – 75 BELL
Feb 11, 2023 BELL 88 – 84 QUC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BELL QUC
Overall 15-18 18-15
Conference 9-9 7-11
Home 8-6 8-5
Away 6-12 7-10
Neutral 1-0 3-0
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 63.5 75.6
Avg Pts Against 69.6 75.5
Massey -5.3 (#262) 1.0 (#154)
Bradley-Terry -0.97 (#269) 0.72 (#110)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.44 (#282) 0.25 (#152)
RPI 0.472 (#225) 0.534 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors BELL QUC
FG% 43.1% 44.0%
3PT% 33.8% 34.2%
REB / G 27.1 38.6
OREB / G 5.6 12.1
AST / TO 0.97 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 51.4%
TOV% 20.0% 19.9%
ORB% 19.4% 33.5%
FT Rate 21.6% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.8% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 15.7%
DRB% 71.3% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.3% 15.4%

Game Analysis

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