Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UML -500 UNH +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -8.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -7.0 (-23.0) | 151.2 (+10.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -8.4 (-24.4) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -6.9 (-22.9) | 147.2 (+14.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -7.3 (-23.3) | 148.1 (+13.9) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UML 78 – 56 UNH |
| Jan 29, 2026 | UNH 66 – 61 UML |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNH 80 – 79 UML |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UML 97 – 80 UNH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UML 82 – 75 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -1.8 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#118) | 0.08 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#114) | -0.21 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#133) | 0.516 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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