Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +240 UTA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +21 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -2.2 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.4 (-18.6) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.1 (-18.9) | 146.2 (+6.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -2.4 (-18.6) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.5 (-19.5) | 146.7 (+6.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTA 63 – 50 UTU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTU 87 – 84 UTA |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTA 56 – 52 UTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTA 73 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UTU 74 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#284) | -0.7 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#244) | -0.12 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#248) | -0.03 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#244) | 0.492 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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