I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–16 on winners spread MAE 9.0 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon State @ USC +5.6 141.0 75% 54–82 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -8.8 146.1 15% 83–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +12.3 155.1 86% 68–78 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +12.9 140.0 86% 74–77 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +11.3 153.4 87% 70–59 ✗
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +1.1 137.4 61% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale +10.6 140.6 85% 58–74 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -3.1 149.5 33% 89–76 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany +6.5 166.3 75% 114–102 ✗
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -2.6 145.2 39% 76–85 ✗
Sacramento State @ Portland State +5.9 138.8 74% 51–58 ✓
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +6.1 146.8 74% 70–99 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +2.1 148.5 69% 68–70 ✓
Florida State @ Louisville -7.1 145.8 30% 92–101 ✗
Wyoming @ UNLV +6.6 147.6 76% 48–62 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -1.1 151.2 49% 89–93 ✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana +11.4 147.7 86% 60–80 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Kansas City -1.8 139.8 44% 71–56 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +2.2 164.6 71% 76–82 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +1.4 134.3 52% 61–60 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +6.5 138.1 77% 65–88 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge +3.6 140.5 62% 70–76 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +0.9 153.3 56% 82–63 ✗
Idaho @ Montana State +7.2 141.7 77% 81–75 ✗
Tennessee @ Kentucky +0.6 159.2 47% 103–92 ✗
Mississippi State @ Alabama +10.9 156.9 83% 67–99 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama +1.9 146.6 63% 69–70 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +8.6 151.8 81% 59–79 ✓
Washington State @ Washington +0.7 151.5 50% 90–87 ✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State +0.6 134.2 54% 65–67 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -2.2 138.8 41% 67–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +1.9 147.7 63% 78–65 ✗
Xavier @ DePaul -15.2 146.0 13% 93–68 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State -10.0 145.0 18% 73–61 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +22.5 143.1 91% 73–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.9 140.4 45% 70–59 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +11.5 134.5 86% 68–93 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA -0.7 133.6 50% 63–71 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +4.6 135.0 62% 64–62 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -1.2 151.7 42% 75–69 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago +2.9 136.5 67% 63–76 ✓
Rider @ Iona +5.3 143.3 74% 93–94 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena -8.3 133.9 18% 68–61 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +0.1 124.1 53% 52–63 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield +11.5 148.7 87% 68–77 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +6.7 148.9 81% 63–88 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +2.5 148.6 59% 89–87 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -2.4 148.8 38% 78–82 ✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +0.5 157.2 52% 85–78 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +12.1 151.1 87% 67–87 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +9.3 154.8 80% 80–92 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +11.6 154.4 87% 67–70 ✓
UAB @ SMU +11.0 149.7 85% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ Villanova +1.8 139.6 61% 50–68 ✓
Nebraska @ Illinois +9.5 156.3 82% 84–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.