Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -400 IDHO +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -9.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.5 (-16.5) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.7 (-13.7) | 140.1 (+15.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.2 (-13.2) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -8.3 (-14.3) | 143.1 (+12.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#230) | -9.7 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -1.62 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | -2.18 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#227) | 0.402 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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