Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -213 DAV +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.7 (+11.3) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.0 (+10.0) | 135.8 (+3.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.9 (+10.1) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.6 (+10.4) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#119) | 2.9 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#102) | 0.57 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#112) | 0.77 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#91) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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