Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SUU -600 RGV +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -10.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -10.1 (+9.9) | 152.5 (-14.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -8.8 (+11.2) | 151.4 (-13.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -8.6 (+11.4) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -10.0 (+10.0) | 153.3 (-15.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | RGV 95 – 72 SUU |
| Dec 19, 2024 | RGV 78 – 73 SUU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SUU 68 – 59 RGV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SUU 94 – 88 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 2-18 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#216) | -9.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#248) | -1.61 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#225) | -2.33 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#253) | 0.410 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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