Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +105 RGV -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +23 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -13.6 (-36.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -4.8 (-27.8) | 144.8 (+22.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -3.3 (-26.3) | 147.2 (+19.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | RGV 78 – 73 SUU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SUU 68 – 59 RGV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SUU 79 – 59 RGV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SUU 94 – 88 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | -0.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#231) | -0.42 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#228) | -0.59 (#226) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 16.0% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 2.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.0% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 6.2% |
| FT Rate | 11.4% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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