Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | RGV +210 SUU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -4.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -4.8 (-4.2) | 149.8 (-22.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -3.0 (-6.0) | 151.6 (-24.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -3.1 (-5.9) | 152.2 (-25.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -4.3 (-4.7) | 152.9 (-25.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | RGV 95 – 72 SUU |
| Dec 19, 2024 | RGV 78 – 73 SUU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SUU 79 – 59 RGV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SUU 94 – 88 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 5-15 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L14 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#332) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#336) | -1.23 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#341) | -1.14 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#345) | 0.434 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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