Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -300 UAB +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -13.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.0 (-5.0) | 149.0 (-8.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.7 (-7.7) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.0 (-8.0) | 149.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.7 (-8.7) | 150.5 (-9.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2024 | UAB 74 – 70 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#40) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#100) | 1.12 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#78) | 1.17 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#106) | 0.567 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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