Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -133 SMU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -4.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.6 (+4.6) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.4 (+5.4) | 150.7 (-6.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.6 (+5.6) | 152.3 (-8.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.4 (+6.4) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2024 | SMU 72 – 69 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#123) | 10.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#95) | 1.08 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#106) | 1.63 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#73) | 0.545 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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