Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USC -600 ORST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +28 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | USC -7.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -5.7 (+22.3) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.9 (+20.1) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.8 (+22.2) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.6 (+22.4) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | ORST 86 – 70 USC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ORST 61 – 58 USC |
| Dec 5, 2022 | USC 63 – 62 ORST |
| Feb 25, 2022 | USC 94 – 91 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USC 81 – 71 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#97) | 0.8 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | 0.54 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#136) | 0.63 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#157) | 0.513 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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