Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -12.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -11.7 (+8.7) | 140.7 (+44.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -11.2 (+8.2) | 141.1 (+43.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.6 (+8.6) | 141.2 (+43.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -12.5 (+9.5) | 141.4 (+43.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 54 ORST |
| Dec 31, 2023 | ORST 86 – 70 USC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ORST 61 – 58 USC |
| Dec 5, 2022 | USC 63 – 62 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USC 81 – 71 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-13 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L18 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#225) | 11.8 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#294) | 2.74 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#260) | 3.12 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#298) | 0.603 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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