Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +345 USC -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -2.4 (+18.4) | 144.6 (+11.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.4 (+21.4) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -3.9 (+19.9) | 145.5 (+10.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -3.8 (+19.8) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 54 ORST |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ORST 61 – 58 USC |
| Dec 5, 2022 | USC 63 – 62 ORST |
| Feb 25, 2022 | USC 94 – 91 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USC 81 – 71 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#231) | 7.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#181) | 0.66 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#186) | 1.10 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.532 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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