Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +333 USC -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | USC -7.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.6 (+10.6) | 131.6 (-12.6) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.0 (+10.0) | 131.3 (-12.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.6 (+10.6) | 131.6 (-12.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -8.0 (+11.0) | 132.4 (-13.4) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 54 ORST |
| Dec 31, 2023 | ORST 86 – 70 USC |
| Dec 5, 2022 | USC 63 – 62 ORST |
| Feb 25, 2022 | USC 94 – 91 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USC 81 – 71 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#207) | 9.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#224) | 1.84 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#229) | 2.18 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#270) | 0.586 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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