Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -213 SMC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -5.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -4.7 (-6.7) | 137.1 (-11.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.1 (-7.1) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -4.6 (-6.6) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -4.9 (-6.9) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#20) | 12.8 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#47) | 1.69 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#34) | 2.12 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#57) | 0.580 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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