Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -120 JXST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -1.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -1.1 (+3.1) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.0 (+1.0) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -0.6 (+1.4) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -0.2 (+1.8) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NMSU 68 – 63 JXST |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NMSU 77 – 75 JXST |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NMSU 79 – 70 JXST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 52 JXST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | JXST 65 – 59 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#269) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -0.68 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#221) | -0.27 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#234) | 0.462 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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