Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -195 JXST +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +6 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -2.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.5 (-8.5) | 135.6 (-11.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -0.9 (-6.9) | 136.8 (-12.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.1 (-9.1) | 137.9 (-13.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.6 (-8.6) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NMSU 68 – 63 JXST |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NMSU 77 – 75 JXST |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NMSU 79 – 70 JXST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 52 JXST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NMSU 66 – 64 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#170) | 0.62 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#148) | 0.63 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#164) | 0.550 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 11.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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