Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Conference USA · Pan American Center · January 26, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money NMSU -195 / JXST +165
Model Predictions
Spread Total NMSU win
Actual JXST +6 124 Lost
Massey NMSU -2.7 (-8.7)
Massey Totals 138.5 (-14.5)
Bradley-Terry 53%
Weighted B-T 62%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -3.1 (-9.1) 137.9 (-13.9) 65%
Model 4 ML NMSU -0.9 (-6.9) 136.8 (-12.8) 56%
Model 3 ML NMSU -2.5 (-8.5) 135.6 (-11.6) 64%
Baseline ML NMSU -2.6 (-8.6) 136.0 (-12.0) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 11, 2026 NMSU 6863 JXST
Mar 6, 2026 NMSU 7775 JXST
Feb 14, 2026 NMSU 7970 JXST
Feb 21, 2025 NMSU 6152 JXST
Mar 2, 2024 NMSU 6664 JXST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NMSU JXST
Overall 17-15 23-13
Conference 10-8 12-6
Home 9-6 12-2
Away 8-6 8-8
Neutral 0-3 3-3
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.7 70.9
Avg Pts Against 67.3 69.3
Massey 0.9 (#151) 1.5 (#138)
Bradley-Terry 0.13 (#170) 0.62 (#118)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.44 (#148) 0.63 (#129)
RPI 0.511 (#164) 0.550 (#84)
Shooting & Four Factors NMSU JXST
FG% 41.8% 44.8%
3PT% 32.9% 34.6%
REB / G 36.8 38.7
OREB / G 12.0 11.2
AST / TO 0.98 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 50.9%
TOV% 17.1% 16.4%
ORB% 33.4% 33.1%
FT Rate 22.3% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.6% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 14.4% 11.1%
DRB% 69.4% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 29.0% 18.9%

Game Analysis

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