Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -265 JXST +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -4.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -4.4 (-2.4) | 140.5 (+11.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -4.5 (-2.5) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -4.4 (-2.4) | 143.1 (+8.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -4.3 (-2.3) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NMSU 68 – 63 JXST |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NMSU 79 – 70 JXST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 52 JXST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | JXST 65 – 59 NMSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NMSU 66 – 64 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#173) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#228) | -0.64 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#190) | -0.67 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#219) | 0.471 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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