Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -500 MAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -13.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -12.1 (-3.1) | 148.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -10.1 (-1.1) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -11.0 (-2.0) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -11.5 (-2.5) | 148.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#179) | -11.2 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#193) | -1.75 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#205) | -2.68 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#170) | 0.446 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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