Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -105 FAIR -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -1.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (-34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.1 (+5.1) | 157.2 (-21.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.3 (+6.3) | 157.0 (-21.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.2 (+6.2) | 156.2 (-20.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.4 (+5.4) | 158.1 (-22.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
| Feb 4, 2024 | FAIR 77 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#329) | -5.5 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#306) | 0.95 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#299) | 1.09 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#295) | 0.514 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 60.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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