Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -105 MAN -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -3.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -3.1 (-9.9) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -1.5 (-11.5) | 147.4 (-0.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.1 (-9.9) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -3.1 (-9.9) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
| Feb 4, 2024 | FAIR 77 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#338) | -5.4 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#297) | -0.62 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#320) | -1.06 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#302) | 0.478 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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