Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Fairfield Stags
67 80
FINAL Conference
Manhattan Jaspers
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Leo D. Mahoney Arena · February 16, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MAN -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money FAIR -105 / MAN -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual MAN +13 147 Lost
Massey MAN -3.6 (-9.4)
Massey Totals 155.0 (-8.0)
Bradley-Terry 45%
Weighted B-T 37%
Efficiency Plus ML MAN -1.5 (-11.5) 147.4 (-0.4) 45%
Baseline Tuned ML MAN -3.1 (-9.9) 145.8 (+1.2) 36%
Baseline ML MAN -3.1 (-9.9) 147.3 (-0.3) 32%
Baseline Plus ML MAN -3.1 (-9.9) 147.7 (-0.7) 35%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 FAIR 7160 MAN
Jan 15, 2026 FAIR 9862 MAN
Dec 6, 2025 MAN 7066 FAIR
Jan 24, 2025 FAIR 8784 MAN
Feb 4, 2024 FAIR 7768 MAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR MAN
Overall 12-20 17-14
Conference 8-12 12-8
Home 8-6 9-5
Away 3-12 8-7
Neutral 1-2 0-2
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 66.7 75.9
Avg Pts Against 73.5 75.2
Massey -12.2 (#338) -5.4 (#254)
Bradley-Terry -1.40 (#297) -0.62 (#226)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.26 (#320) -1.06 (#248)
RPI 0.436 (#302) 0.478 (#220)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR MAN
FG% 38.9% 43.3%
3PT% 31.5% 33.7%
REB / G 32.9 36.8
OREB / G 11.9 12.1
AST / TO 1.20 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 50.2%
TOV% 15.2% 17.3%
ORB% 30.8% 33.0%
FT Rate 20.1% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 15.4%
DRB% 68.5% 67.1%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 19.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.