Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -278 MAN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +36 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -8.9 (+27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -6.8 (+29.2) | 152.3 (+7.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.9 (+30.1) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.9 (+29.1) | 150.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -6.6 (+29.4) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
| Feb 4, 2024 | FAIR 77 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#260) | -11.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#222) | -1.32 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#234) | -2.00 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#239) | 0.445 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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