Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -205 MAN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -6.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.4 (+5.6) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.0 (+7.0) | 143.7 (-12.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -5.5 (+5.5) | 144.9 (-13.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -5.4 (+5.6) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
| Feb 4, 2024 | FAIR 77 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#264) | -12.4 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | -1.51 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#230) | -2.05 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#179) | 0.447 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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