Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PORT +140 PEPP -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -2.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -1.6 (+5.6) | 148.0 (+34.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -1.1 (+5.1) | 149.3 (+32.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -1.1 (+5.1) | 151.2 (+30.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -1.7 (+5.7) | 150.9 (+31.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PORT 77 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 19, 2026 | PEPP 95 – 87 PORT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PEPP 67 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PEPP 86 – 73 PORT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PORT 87 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#312) | -3.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#279) | -0.98 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#281) | -1.00 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#267) | 0.441 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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