Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | WKU -275 MTSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -9.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -7.2 (+15.8) | 137.9 (+15.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -6.9 (+16.1) | 138.1 (+14.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -6.5 (+16.5) | 138.1 (+14.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -6.5 (+16.5) | 137.7 (+15.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#166) | -6.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#162) | -1.10 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#161) | -1.13 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#175) | 0.421 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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