Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -175 TOL +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -6.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -6.2 (+0.8) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.4 (+0.6) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -6.0 (+1.0) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.1 (+0.9) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#92) | 3.0 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#82) | 0.95 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#81) | 0.82 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#76) | 0.545 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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