Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -380 TOL +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -9.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.0 (+1.0) | 164.3 (+25.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.0 (+2.0) | 163.1 (+26.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.6 (+2.4) | 162.0 (+28.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -9.8 (+0.2) | 161.5 (+28.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TOL 72 – 64 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#99) | -4.4 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#75) | 0.06 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#89) | -0.31 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#24) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.