Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -138 AKR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -0.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -0.2 (+8.2) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.0 (+7.0) | 144.1 (-8.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -0.2 (+8.2) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -0.4 (+7.6) | 146.9 (-10.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#133) | 5.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#111) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#130) | 1.61 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#98) | 0.578 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.